Brexit: Challenges and Opportunities for Jamaica and Other CARIFORUM Countries

This paper analyses the implications of a new preferential trading relationship between CARIFORUM countries and the UK. It is estimated that such a new trade agreement could increase Jamaica’s imports from the UK by 23 per cent annually, which would partly comprise trade diversion (14 per cent) with the remainder being new imports. As Jamaica already has duty-free, quota-free (DFQF) access to the UK goods market, any increase in its exports would be new exports. It is estimated that there is potential to increase exports in the new products by 33 per cent. Given the CARIFORUM-EU EPA, it is untenable for the UK to opt for a bilateral preferential trade agreement or EPA with Jamaica without including its Caribbean neighbours. Such a move would be both time-consuming and a disproportionately costly proposition for the UK, and would arguably undermine the regionalisation agenda. A CARIFORUM-UK EPA covering both goods and services is a possible way forward.